If you're like me and follow science and technology then chances are you have heard about Russia planning to launch spacecraft to Asteroid Apophis. Apophis is one of may Near Earth Objects, or NEO's, and has been deemed an "earth killer" due to its size.
It is scheduled to make a close pass around earth in 2029. It's been determined it won't hit Earth at this time but it is getting pretty darn close - closer than the communications satellites we have in orbit. People much smarter than me and better at math have determined it won't hit Earth in 2029.
I can only hope they are taking into account gravitational effects from the Earth, Sun, and Moon and have figured those into their calculations. I can only hope they are considering other objects in Apophis' path that could alter its course or the remote possibilities it will collide with other NEO's or comets.
There is however something that has been called a "keyhole" that if Apophis passes through then the odds it will hit Earth next time around in 2036 increase dramatically. Some have speculated if it hits this keyhole or window in 2029 then it will hit Earth. I presume the speculations are based on someone's calculations.
According to NASA if Apophis does not hit this window then the odds it will hit Earth in 2036 are 1 in 250,000.
It's not clear yet if NASA and Russia are going to work together on this. So far NASA seems to be balking at Russia's plan to save the Earth from this potential asteroid collision.
I have a few other concerns which I can only presume and hope people much smarter and better at math than me are taking into consideration. For one, what if altering Apophis' orbit actually makes things worse? What if in the process other NEO orbits are altered sending even more asteroids hurling toward Earth?
The other minor concern I have which I admit borders on the conspiracy theory but let's just suppose for a moment Russia does get spacecraft to Apophis capable of either destroying it or altering its course. They could in theory then perhaps hold the Earth to hostage demands like asking for all the world's oil or else...Perhaps asking for all the gold or $50 Trillion dollars. Who knows? Maybe they could even hurl the asteroid in such a way that it hits North America.
As far fetched as it may sound I do hope NASA works with Russia. All joking aside this is a serious issue. And really, if an asteroid was going to hit Earth, would they tell us? Maybe Russia knows something we don't?
Still my hunch is that it's not the asteroid you see that gets ya...it's the asteroid you don't see...
The Register - Russia plans asteroid-defence space mission to Apophis - Probably not planning to use it as weapon
BBC - Russia 'plans to stop asteroid'
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